Wednesday, 1 October 2008

Statistics Raped By-Election

According to the Rape Crisis web site, they quote statistics derived from a 1991 survey of 1007 women, in 11 cities in northern England, in which 1 in 4 women had suffered rape or attempted rape; and according to Rape Crisis Lines of England and Wales, 97% of all reported rapes were committed by those that knew their victim:

UK Data on Rape and Sexual Assault




1 in 4 women have experienced rape or attempted rape

Painter, 1991 Survey of 1,007 women in 11 cities, Northern England

1 in 7 women have been coerced into sex, rising to 1 in 3 among divorced and separated women

Painter, 1991 Survey of 1,007 women in 11 cities, Northern England

The most common perpetrators of rape are husbands and partners

Painter, 1991 Survey of 1,007 women in 11 cities, Northern England

97% of callers to Rape Crisis Lines knew their assailant prior to the assault

Rape Crisis Federation of England and Wales Analysis of RCF members' records,
England and Wales

The majority of perpetrators are known to the victim

Kelly et. al, 2005  

So what happened to Jill Saward’s campaign at the Haltemprice and Howden by-election on 10th July 2008?

Wiki: The by-election was triggered by the surprise and controversial resignation of the sitting MP David Davis on 12 June 2008. Davis’ stated intention was to spark a wider public debate on the perceived erosion of civil liberties in the UK by re-contesting his seat on this single issue platform, launched as the David Davis for Freedom campaign. The two other main political parties Labour and the Liberal Democrats declined to field candidates, due to opposing and supporting Davis’ stand respectively.

The top 8 of the total 26 Candidates

Party Candidates Votes
Conservative David Davis 17113
Green Shan Oakes 1758
English Democrats Joanne Robinson 1714
National Front Tess Culnane 544
Miss Great Britain Party Gemma Garrett 521
Independent Jill Saward 492
Monster Raving Looney Mad Cow-Girl 412
Independent Walter Sweeney 238
  Total turn out 23911
  Total eligible to vote 70264
  Turn out 2005 gen. election 48029

Of all the candidates, Jill probably received as much media attention as David Davis, prior to the election, with many a political pundit predicting a shock result; yet she only got 0.7% of the total eligible vote (2% of the turn out).

With half the turn out of voters compared to the 2005 election, and the other two main parties not showing, we can conclude that there was not a party political cause to split the vote away from someone wanting to vote on the issue of rape. Indeed, what incentive was there for a rape victim not to vote, since David Davis’ stance was contra to that of Jill’s? Compounding this with the fact that non-rape victims who had an interest in Jill’s cause would have contributed to the total votes, and you will have to conclude that the number of rape victims amongst the good people of Haltemprice and Howden will be much less than 0.7%.

Hence, less than 1.4% of the local women, assuming the genders are equal in number, which is extremely wide of the claimed value of 25% of the women, as reported by Rape Crisis; an error of about 18 times, if both hypotheses are true. So there is a clear contradiction between the two hypotheses, either the Rape Crisis statistics are completely bogus, or thousands of the good people of Haltemprice and Howden are perpetrating a bizarre cover-up.

Lies, damn lies, statistics, and feminism; what was intended as a public exposure of the unpopularity of the Draconian measures exemplified by the 42 day detention, turned out to expose the dubious foundations of the paranoia of modern misanthropic feminism.

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